Deposit Rate and Inflation
When the nominal deposit rate stays below inflation the real rate is negative — savings erode. The gap between the two lines is the real return.
Real Returns of Assets
Inflation-adjusted real returns of gold, the dollar and the euro over different periods (nominal in parentheses). A positive real return means the asset beat inflation.
| Period | Inflation | Gram Gold | Dollar | Euro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | %32.6 | +%21.3 (nominal +%60.8) | −%9.1 (nominal +%20.5) | −%8.3 (nominal +%21.6) |
| 3 yr | %215.0 | +%49.3 (nominal +%370.2) | −%24.3 (nominal +%138.3) | −%21.4 (nominal +%147.7) |
| 5 yr | %663.0 | +%76.3 (nominal +%1,245.0) | −%25.9 (nominal +%465.7) | −%29.8 (nominal +%436.0) |
| 10 yr | %1,373.8 | +%279.9 (nominal +%5,498.7) | +%11.5 (nominal +%1,542.9) | +%12.8 (nominal +%1,562.7) |
Source: CBRT historical series (gram gold, USD/EUR sell, CPI). Past returns do not guarantee the future.
Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) · 105.6
The CPI-based real effective exchange rate shows the lira’s inflation-adjusted value against trading partners’ currencies. A decline signals real depreciation; a rise signals real appreciation.
CBRT Gross Reserves · $152.1 billion $
The central bank’s foreign exchange and gold reserves are the lira’s buffer against external shocks, imports and debt payments. Rising gross reserves build confidence; a sustained decline signals fragility.
Source: CBRT weekly reserve statistics (TP.AB.C1 FX, TP.AB.C2 gold). This is gross reserves; net reserves are calculated separately by deducting swaps and liabilities.
Why Real Value Matters
In a high-inflation environment nominal figures deceive: earning 40% interest while inflation is 50% still erodes your purchasing power. Real rate, real return and real exchange rate measure whether your money truly gains or loses value. A negative real rate punishes saving and fuels flight into foreign currency, gold or housing.
How to Read the Dashboard
If the real deposit rate is positive, holding money in the bank preserves purchasing power; if negative, it erodes. In the asset table a positive real return means that asset beat inflation. A fall in REER means the lira got cheaper, and the gap between expected and realised inflation shows how accurate expectations were.
Source: CBRT EVDS — CPI, TRY deposit rate, inflation expectation survey and CPI-based real effective exchange rate. Real returns are derived from gram gold and currency sell rates. All series are public.
This page is for information only; it is not investment advice. Real calculations are based on official CPI.