What Is the Fed Rate Watch Tool?
This tool shows the market-implied probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will change interest rates at its upcoming meetings. The expectations are derived from the prices of CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures contracts, where investors trade with real money — which makes them an up-to-date and unbiased gauge.
How Are the Probabilities Calculated?
Each Fed Funds futures contract prices the average effective federal funds rate for its month. The implied rate equals 100 minus the contract price. Because the meeting falls within the month, the monthly average is a weighted blend of the pre- and post-meeting rates; solving that blend yields the expected post-meeting rate, which is then distributed across the 25-basis-point target ranges as probabilities.
Source: CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures (Yahoo Finance) and the Fed target rate range (Federal Reserve, FRED). FOMC meeting calendar from the Federal Reserve official schedule.
This calculation reflects market expectations; it is not a precise forecast and is not investment advice. Actual Fed decisions may differ.